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Desportivo Brasil U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 12 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:00

Desportivo Brasil U20

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

EC São Bernardo U20

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 3.00 vs 1.40 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-13.4%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.9%1-17.8%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.0%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.6%3-16.9%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-16.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% — — —

Draw 20.0% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 50.7% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.7%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 3–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 1–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Desportivo Brasil U202.3

EC São Bernardo U200.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DESPORTIVO BRASIL U20 · PPG 3.00

EC SÃO BERNARDO U20 · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 3.00 vs 1.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Desportivo Brasil U20 (H) 65.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

EC São Bernardo U20 (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Desportivo Brasil U20 face EC São Bernardo U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Desportivo Brasil U20 a 65% chance, the draw 20% and EC São Bernardo U20 15%, so Desportivo Brasil U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Desportivo Brasil U20 and 0.7 for EC São Bernardo U20 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Desportivo Brasil U20 are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.40 for EC São Bernardo U20.

Desportivo Brasil U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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