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Fach-Donaufeld vs SV Horn Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:00

Fach-Donaufeld

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

SV Horn

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.0%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.9%1-111.4%1-27.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.0%3-15.0%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 45.5% 2.20 +2.3%

Draw 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -4.0%

Away win 28.5% 38.5% 2.60 -15.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 63.7% 1.57 -3.9%

Over 3.5 37.3% 43.3% 2.31 -13.8%

BTTS 60.0% 69.4% 1.44 -13.6%

Home O1.5 49.4% 54.1% 1.85 -8.6%

Away O1.5 36.7% 49.5% 2.02 -25.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -35.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.0%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.3%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fach-Donaufeld1.6

SV Horn1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FACH-DONAUFELD · PPG 1.54

SV HORN · PPG 1.34

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fach-Donaufeld (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.0%

SV Horn (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fach-Donaufeld face SV Horn in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fach-Donaufeld a 47% chance, the draw 25% and SV Horn 28%, so Fach-Donaufeld are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fach-Donaufeld and 1.3 for SV Horn (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fach-Donaufeld are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.34 for SV Horn.

Fach-Donaufeld vs SV Horn Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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