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Parndorf vs Donau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost · Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:00

Parndorf

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Donau

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.0%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-110.9%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.3%3-16.0%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 21.5% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 49.8% — — —

Away O1.5 27.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 21%

ROI -35.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 55% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parndorf1.8

Donau1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PARNDORF · PPG 1.86

DONAU · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Parndorf (H) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Donau (A) 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Parndorf face Donau in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parndorf a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Donau 22%, so Parndorf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Parndorf and 1.0 for Donau (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parndorf are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.25 for Donau.

Parndorf vs Donau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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