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I. del Valle vs LDU Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 20:30

I. del Valle

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

LDU Quito

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 87.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+65.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-11.3%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.2%1-14.2%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.6%2-16.8%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.4%3-17.2%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.3%4+-113.0%4+-23.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.3% 52.6% 1.90 +65.9%

Draw 8.9% 29.0% 3.45 -69.3%

Away win 3.8% 25.3% 3.95 -85.0%

Over 2.5 73.0% 52.6% 1.90 +38.7%

Over 3.5 52.5% 30.8% 3.25 +70.6%

BTTS 42.4% 58.8% 1.70 -27.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.4%

H 87% / xG 3.2-0.6 / O2.5 73% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.4%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 4–0 10.0%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

I. del Valle3.2

LDU Quito0.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

I. DEL VALLE · PPG 2.50

LDU QUITO · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

63%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away GOOD (1.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

I. del Valle (H) 87.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +65.9%

Draw 8.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -69.3%

LDU Quito (A) 3.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -85.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

I. del Valle face LDU Quito in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives I. del Valle a 87% chance, the draw 9% and LDU Quito 4%, so I. del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for I. del Valle and 0.6 for LDU Quito (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, I. del Valle are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.50 for LDU Quito. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +70.6%. This match finished 0-2.

I. del Valle vs LDU Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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