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IK brage vs Orebro SK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:00

IK brage

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orebro SK

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.2%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.0%1-19.1%1-25.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.1%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.3%4+-23.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 48.8% 2.05 +14.0%

Draw 22.3% 27.4% 3.65 -11.2%

Away win 22.2% 30.8% 3.25 -16.7%

Over 2.5 64.1% 59.9% 1.67 +7.0%

Over 3.5 42.6% 37.0% 2.70 +15.0%

BTTS 61.6% 64.5% 1.55 -4.5%

Home O1.5 61.4% 54.1% 1.85 +13.6%

Away O1.5 34.7% 40.8% 2.45 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -6.0%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IK brage2.2

Orebro SK1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IK BRAGE · PPG 1.12

OREBRO SK · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IK brage (H) 55.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +14.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.2%

Orebro SK (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

IK brage face Orebro SK in Sweden - Superettan on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IK brage a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Orebro SK 22%, so IK brage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for IK brage and 1.1 for Orebro SK (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IK brage are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.67 for Orebro SK. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.4%.

IK brage vs Orebro SK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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