Today / Russia - First League / Arsenal Tula vs Torpedo Moskva

Arsenal Tula vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction— Russia - First League

Regular Season - 4 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 12:00

Arsenal Tula

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Torpedo Moskva

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-113.3%0-29.2%0-34.3%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.2%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.4%2-16.1%2-24.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.4%3-11.9%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 33.4% 2.99 -9.7%

Draw 29.0% 33.1% 3.02 -7.4%

Away win 40.8% 41.3% 2.42 -1.3%

Over 2.5 45.7% 44.8% 2.23 +1.9%

Over 3.5 26.8% 26.2% 3.82 +1.4%

BTTS 49.2% 53.5% 1.87 -8.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 33.6% 2.98 -2.9%

Away O1.5 43.7% 39.1% 2.56 +11.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.2%

A 41% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 13.3%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal Tula1.0

Torpedo Moskva1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL TULA · PPG 1.33

TORPEDO MOSKVA · PPG 1.72

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.43, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal Tula (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.99 · IMPLIED 33.4% EV -9.7%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.02 · IMPLIED 33.1% EV -7.4%

Torpedo Moskva (A) 40.8%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Tula face Torpedo Moskva in Russia - First League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Tula a 30% chance, the draw 29% and Torpedo Moskva 41%, so Torpedo Moskva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Arsenal Tula and 1.4 for Torpedo Moskva (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Tula are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.72 for Torpedo Moskva. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Arsenal Tula vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - First League Predictions