Today / Russia - First League / Volga Ulyanovsk vs Chelyabinsk
Volga Ulyanovsk vs Chelyabinsk Prediction— Russia - First League
Regular Season - 4 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:00
// Model verdict
BTTS
Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%
Form & verdict
VOLGA ULYANOVSK · PPG 1.40
CHELYABINSK · PPG 0.82
xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Volga Ulyanovsk face Chelyabinsk in Russia - First League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Volga Ulyanovsk a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Chelyabinsk 28%, so Volga Ulyanovsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Volga Ulyanovsk and 1.1 for Chelyabinsk (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Volga Ulyanovsk are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.82 for Chelyabinsk. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.5%.