Today / Russia - First League / Volga Ulyanovsk vs Chelyabinsk

Volga Ulyanovsk vs Chelyabinsk Prediction— Russia - First League

Regular Season - 4 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:00

Volga Ulyanovsk logo
Volga Ulyanovsk
PPG 1.40 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Chelyabinsk logo
Chelyabinsk
PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.6%0-24.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.2%1-112.4%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.0%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.4%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 45.7% 39.8% 2.51 +14.7%
Draw 26.7% 32.1% 3.12 -10.0%
Away win 27.6% 36.0% 2.78 -14.0%
Over 2.5 50.4% 46.1% 2.17 +9.4%
Over 3.5 28.9% 26.3% 3.80 +5.9%
BTTS 52.6% 54.3% 1.84 -3.2%
Home O1.5 45.4% 38.3% 2.61 +18.5%
Away O1.5 36.5% 35.6% 2.81 +2.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%
#2 0–0 7.7%
#3 1–0 11.2%
#4 2–1 9.0%
#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Volga Ulyanovsk1.4
Chelyabinsk1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VOLGA ULYANOVSK · PPG 1.40

CHELYABINSK · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60%
BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Volga Ulyanovsk (H) 45.7%
ODDS 2.51 · IMPLIED 39.8% EV +14.7%
Draw 26.7%
ODDS 3.12 · IMPLIED 32.1% EV -10.0%
Chelyabinsk (A) 27.6%
ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Volga Ulyanovsk face Chelyabinsk in Russia - First League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Volga Ulyanovsk a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Chelyabinsk 28%, so Volga Ulyanovsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Volga Ulyanovsk and 1.1 for Chelyabinsk (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Volga Ulyanovsk are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.82 for Chelyabinsk. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.5%.

PredictVantage

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