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FC Gomel vs FC Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 15:10

FC Gomel

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Vitebsk

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-18.9%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.7%1-112.4%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-18.7%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 49.3% 2.03 -0.3%

Draw 26.9% 30.1% 3.32 -6.4%

Away win 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Over 2.5 45.7% 45.7% 2.19 +0.1%

Over 3.5 28.2% 26.3% 3.80 +4.3%

BTTS 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Home O1.5 42.9% 44.1% 2.27 -2.6%

Away O1.5 20.3% 28.7% 3.48 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 14%

O2.5 29%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 15.7%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Gomel1.4

FC Vitebsk0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC GOMEL · PPG 2.00

FC VITEBSK · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Gomel (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.03 · IMPLIED 49.3% EV -0.3%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.32 · IMPLIED 30.1% EV -6.4%

FC Vitebsk (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Gomel face FC Vitebsk in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Gomel a 49% chance, the draw 27% and FC Vitebsk 24%, so FC Gomel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FC Gomel and 0.8 for FC Vitebsk (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Gomel are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.12 for FC Vitebsk. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.3%.

FC Gomel vs FC Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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