Today / Uzbekistan - Super League / Surkhon vs Navbahor

Surkhon vs Navbahor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 16 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 14:00

Surkhon

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Navbahor

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-115.4%0-210.5%0-34.7%0-4+2.2%1 1-09.3%1-112.6%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-03.8%2-15.1%2-23.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.0%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 20.0% 5.00 +26.1%

Draw 27.8% 27.8% 3.60 +0.1%

Away win 43.5% 63.7% 1.57 -31.7%

Over 2.5 45.9% 48.8% 2.05 -5.9%

Over 3.5 25.8% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.2%

A 44% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 15.4%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 0–2 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Surkhon0.8

Navbahor1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SURKHON · PPG 1.14

NAVBAHOR · PPG 1.75

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.54 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Surkhon (H) 28.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +26.1%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.1%

Navbahor (A) 43.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -31.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Surkhon face Navbahor in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Surkhon a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Navbahor 44%, so Navbahor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Surkhon and 1.4 for Navbahor (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Surkhon are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.75 for Navbahor.

Surkhon vs Navbahor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uzbekistan - Super League Predictions