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Lokomotiv vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 16 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 14:30

Lokomotiv

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dinamo Samarqand

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.0%0-23.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.8%1-19.6%1-26.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.3%3-16.0%3-24.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.5%4+-23.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 48.8% 2.05 +3.1%

Draw 22.5% 30.3% 3.30 -15.4%

Away win 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

Over 2.5 63.6% 57.1% 1.75 +11.3%

Over 3.5 41.0% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv1.9

Dinamo Samarqand1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV · PPG 1.71

DINAMO SAMARQAND · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +3.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.4%

Dinamo Samarqand (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv face Dinamo Samarqand in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Dinamo Samarqand 27%, so Lokomotiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lokomotiv and 1.4 for Dinamo Samarqand (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.29 for Dinamo Samarqand. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Lokomotiv vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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