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Akademiya Ontustik vs Khan Tengri Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 12:00

Akademiya Ontustik

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Khan Tengri

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-14.6%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.3%1-19.5%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.8%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.6%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 20.2% — — —

Over 2.5 60.4% — — —

Over 3.5 37.0% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 61.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akademiya Ontustik2.1

Khan Tengri0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AKADEMIYA ONTUSTIK · PPG 1.62

KHAN TENGRI · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Akademiya Ontustik (H) 58.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Khan Tengri (A) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Akademiya Ontustik face Khan Tengri in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akademiya Ontustik a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Khan Tengri 20%, so Akademiya Ontustik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Akademiya Ontustik and 0.8 for Khan Tengri (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akademiya Ontustik are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.57 for Khan Tengri.

Akademiya Ontustik vs Khan Tengri Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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