Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B / El Nacional vs 9 de Octubre
El Nacional vs 9 de Octubre Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B
Matchday 20 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 21:30
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
A 38% / xG 0.5-1.0 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 44%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%
Form & verdict
EL NACIONAL · PPG 0.44
9 DE OCTUBRE · PPG 1.33
xG gap -0.42, combined xG 1.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
El Nacional face 9 de Octubre in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Nacional a 24% chance, the draw 38% and 9 de Octubre 38%, so 9 de Octubre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for El Nacional and 1.0 for 9 de Octubre (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Nacional are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.33 for 9 de Octubre.