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HK Kopavogur vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 19:15

HK Kopavogur

PPG 2.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.3%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.4%1-17.9%1-24.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-17.7%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-18.2%4+-24.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.1% 67.6% 1.48 -9.6%

Draw 18.7% 21.7% 4.60 -8.4%

Away win 20.2% 21.1% 4.75 -2.4%

Over 2.5 65.2% 78.1% 1.28 -16.5%

Over 3.5 43.0% 58.8% 1.70 -26.9%

BTTS 61.6% 75.2% 1.33 -18.1%

Home O1.5 63.0% 78.1% 1.28 -19.4%

Away O1.5 33.4% 44.4% 2.25 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 8.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 61% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HK Kopavogur2.4

Leiknir R.1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 2.75

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

HK Kopavogur (H) 61.1%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -9.6%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -8.4%

Leiknir R. (A) 20.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

HK Kopavogur face Leiknir R. in Iceland - 1. Deild on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HK Kopavogur a 61% chance, the draw 19% and Leiknir R. 20%, so HK Kopavogur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for HK Kopavogur and 1.1 for Leiknir R. (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HK Kopavogur are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Leiknir R..

HK Kopavogur vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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