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Pakhtakor vs Buxoro Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 15:00

Pakhtakor

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Buxoro

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-18.1%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-112.1%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 22.8% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 50.9% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.9%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pakhtakor1.5

Buxoro0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PAKHTAKOR · PPG 2.12

BUXORO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pakhtakor (H) 50.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Buxoro (A) 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pakhtakor face Buxoro in Uzbekistan - Super League on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pakhtakor a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Buxoro 23%, so Pakhtakor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pakhtakor and 0.8 for Buxoro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pakhtakor are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.00 for Buxoro.

Pakhtakor vs Buxoro Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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