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Xorazm vs Mash'al Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 16 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 15:00

Xorazm

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mash'al

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-19.3%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.4%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-18.3%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.0%3-13.7%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 60.6% 1.65 -19.1%

Draw 27.2% 29.4% 3.40 -4.5%

Away win 23.9% 21.1% 4.75 +8.1%

Over 2.5 45.9% 50.0% 2.00 -8.2%

Over 3.5 25.8% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 37.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xorazm1.3

Mash'al0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

XORAZM · PPG 1.43

MASH'AL · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Xorazm (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -19.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.5%

Mash'al (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xorazm face Mash'al in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xorazm a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Mash'al 24%, so Xorazm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Xorazm and 0.7 for Mash'al (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xorazm are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.00 for Mash'al.

Xorazm vs Mash'al Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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