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Aktobe Jas vs Ekibastuz Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 13:00

Aktobe Jas

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ekibastuz

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.6%0-22.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-03.8%1-16.4%1-25.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.7%2-18.0%2-26.8%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.9%3-16.7%3-25.6%3-33.2%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-17.5%4+-26.4%4+-33.6%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 26.2% — — —

Over 2.5 73.0% — — —

Over 3.5 50.0% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.6%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aktobe Jas2.5

Ekibastuz1.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 50.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AKTOBE JAS · PPG 1.86

EKIBASTUZ · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aktobe Jas (H) 52.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ekibastuz (A) 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aktobe Jas face Ekibastuz in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aktobe Jas a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Ekibastuz 26%, so Aktobe Jas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Aktobe Jas and 1.7 for Ekibastuz (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aktobe Jas are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.25 for Ekibastuz.

Aktobe Jas vs Ekibastuz Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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