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Shakhter Karagandy vs Kaspij Aktau 2 Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 13:00

Shakhter Karagandy

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kaspij Aktau 2

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +3.05 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.89 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-10.9%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.5%1-13.1%1-20.7%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.4%2-15.4%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.4%3-16.3%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-029.1%4+-113.8%4+-23.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.4% — — —

Draw 15.8% — — —

Away win 7.8% — — —

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 47.3% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.4%

H 76% / xG 3.5-0.5 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.4%

#2 4–0 11.8%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 5–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shakhter Karagandy3.5

Kaspij Aktau 20.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAKHTER KARAGANDY · PPG 3.00

KASPIJ AKTAU 2 · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.05 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.89 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Shakhter Karagandy (H) 76.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kaspij Aktau 2 (A) 7.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shakhter Karagandy face Kaspij Aktau 2 in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shakhter Karagandy a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Kaspij Aktau 2 8%, so Shakhter Karagandy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.5 for Kaspij Aktau 2 (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shakhter Karagandy are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.89 for Kaspij Aktau 2.

Shakhter Karagandy vs Kaspij Aktau 2 Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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