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Belgrano Zarate vs Control Orientado Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Belgrano Zarate

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Control Orientado

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-111.8%0-24.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.2%1-112.7%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.9%2-16.9%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.6%3-12.5%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 46.5% 2.15 -3.9%

Draw 32.1% 34.5% 2.90 -6.9%

Away win 23.2% 30.8% 3.25 -14.8%

Over 2.5 36.3% 38.2% 2.62 -4.9%

Over 3.5 20.2% 19.2% 5.20 +3.0%

BTTS 47.5% 46.5% 2.15 +2.1%

Home O1.5 32.1% 36.8% 2.72 -12.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 26.0% 3.85 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.5%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 1–0 18.2%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–1✓ 11.8%

#5 2–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belgrano Zarate1.1

Control Orientado0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BELGRANO ZARATE · PPG 1.80

CONTROL ORIENTADO · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 1.78 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Belgrano Zarate (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -3.9%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.9%

Control Orientado (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belgrano Zarate face Control Orientado in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belgrano Zarate a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Control Orientado 23%, so Belgrano Zarate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Belgrano Zarate and 0.7 for Control Orientado (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belgrano Zarate are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Control Orientado. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Belgrano Zarate vs Control Orientado Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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