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Uribelarrea vs Buenos Aires City Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Uribelarrea

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Buenos Aires City

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.3%0-114.8%0-24.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.1%1-112.2%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.8%2-15.0%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.1%3-11.4%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% — — —

Draw 37.7% — — —

Away win 26.0% — — —

Over 2.5 29.0% — — —

Over 3.5 13.2% — — —

BTTS 44.9% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.9%

H 36% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.3%

#2 1–0 19.1%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–1 14.8%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uribelarrea0.8

Buenos Aires City0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

URIBELARREA · PPG 2.00

BUENOS AIRES CITY · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 1.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Uribelarrea (H) 36.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Buenos Aires City (A) 26.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Uribelarrea face Buenos Aires City in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uribelarrea a 36% chance, the draw 38% and Buenos Aires City 26%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Uribelarrea and 0.6 for Buenos Aires City (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uribelarrea are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Buenos Aires City. This match finished 1-3.

Uribelarrea vs Buenos Aires City Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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