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Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Sunday, April 19, 2026 18:30 
Lugo PPG 1.75 
Talavera CF PPG 0.75
Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Sunday, April 19, 2026 18:30 Lugo PPG 1.750-0 HIT CS4
Talavera CF PPG 0.75Home· +7.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home
Result: Draw
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 38.1% Odds: 2.38 -9.3%
Over 3.5 18.3% Odds: 4.50 -17.6%
BTTS 39.5% Odds: 2.05 -19.0%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-0 ✘
2nd 2-0 ✘
3rd 1-1 ✘
4th 0-0 ✔
5th 2-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Lugo 1.50
Talavera CF 0.71
Model Suggestion
Home +7.0% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 66%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=56.3%