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Lugo vs Talavera CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Lugo

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Talavera CF

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-17.8%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.4%1-111.7%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-18.8%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.4%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 52.6% 1.90 +7.0%

Draw 26.1% 32.3% 3.10 -19.1%

Away win 17.6% 25.0% 4.00 -29.6%

Over 2.5 38.1% 42.0% 2.38 -9.3%

Over 3.5 18.3% 22.2% 4.50 -17.6%

BTTS 39.5% 48.8% 2.05 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob39.5%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 2–0 12.4%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 0–0✓ 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugo1.5

Talavera CF0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.1% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGO · PPG 1.75

TALAVERA CF · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=56.3%

Win probability 1X2

Lugo (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +7.0%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.1%

Talavera CF (A) 17.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugo face Talavera CF in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugo a 56% chance, the draw 26% and Talavera CF 18%, so Lugo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lugo and 0.7 for Talavera CF (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugo are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Talavera CF. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Lugo vs Talavera CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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