Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Edgeworth Eagles vs Belmont Swansea
Edgeworth Eagles vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW
Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 03:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 52% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%
Form & verdict
EDGEWORTH EAGLES · PPG 2.67
BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.50
xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Edgeworth Eagles face Belmont Swansea in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Edgeworth Eagles a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Belmont Swansea 27%, so Edgeworth Eagles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Edgeworth Eagles and 1.8 for Belmont Swansea (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Edgeworth Eagles are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.4%.