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Edgeworth Eagles vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 03:00

Edgeworth Eagles logo
Edgeworth Eagles
PPG 2.67 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Belmont Swansea logo
Belmont Swansea
PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.4%0-22.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.3%1-16.0%1-25.5%1-33.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.1%2-17.5%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.4%3-16.3%3-25.7%3-33.5%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-17.1%4+-26.5%4+-34.0%4+-4+2.7%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 52.0% 50.0% 2.00 +4.0%
Draw 21.4% 26.3% 3.80 -11.2%
Away win 26.7% 34.7% 2.88 -13.9%
Over 2.5 72.7% 71.4% 1.40 +1.8%
Over 3.5 52.1% 49.8% 2.01 +4.7%
BTTS 70.3% 73.5% 1.36 -4.4%
Home O1.5 64.0% 61.3% 1.63 +4.3%
Away O1.5 49.2% 50.8% 1.97 -3.1%

League track record

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%
O2.5 54%
BTTS 46%
Score Hit 8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob70.3%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.5%
#2 1–1 6.0%
#3 2–2 6.9%
#4 3–1 6.3%
#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Edgeworth Eagles2.5
Belmont Swansea1.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EDGEWORTH EAGLES · PPG 2.67

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Edgeworth Eagles (H) 52.0%
ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +4.0%
Draw 21.4%
ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.2%
Belmont Swansea (A) 26.7%
ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Edgeworth Eagles face Belmont Swansea in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Edgeworth Eagles a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Belmont Swansea 27%, so Edgeworth Eagles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Edgeworth Eagles and 1.8 for Belmont Swansea (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Edgeworth Eagles are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.4%.

PredictVantage

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