Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Adamstown Rosebuds vs Cooks Hill United

Adamstown Rosebuds vs Cooks Hill United Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 06:30

Adamstown Rosebuds

PPG 1.10 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cooks Hill United

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-17.0%0-26.2%0-33.7%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.2%1-29.1%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.4%2-26.6%2-33.9%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.0%3-13.6%3-23.2%3-31.9%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.8%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 43.5% 2.30 -21.1%

Draw 23.6% 28.6% 3.50 -10.4%

Away win 42.1% 40.0% 2.50 +5.3%

Over 2.5 63.4% 69.4% 1.44 -8.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 51.8% 1.93 -24.1%

BTTS 61.8% 73.5% 1.36 -16.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 57.5% 1.74 -21.0%

Away O1.5 48.2% 57.8% 1.73 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.8%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2✓ 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adamstown Rosebuds1.5

Cooks Hill United1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ADAMSTOWN ROSEBUDS · PPG 1.10

COOKS HILL UNITED · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Adamstown Rosebuds (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -21.1%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.4%

Cooks Hill United (A) 42.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adamstown Rosebuds face Cooks Hill United in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adamstown Rosebuds a 34% chance, the draw 24% and Cooks Hill United 42%, so Cooks Hill United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Adamstown Rosebuds and 1.8 for Cooks Hill United (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adamstown Rosebuds are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.22 for Cooks Hill United. This match finished 2-2.

Adamstown Rosebuds vs Cooks Hill United Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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