Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Hamilton Olympic vs Valentine

Hamilton Olympic vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 04:00

Hamilton Olympic

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Valentine

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.8%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.8%1-19.8%1-25.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.0%3-16.7%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 55.6% 1.80 +1.7%

Draw 22.3% 25.6% 3.90 -7.8%

Away win 21.1% 30.3% 3.30 -18.2%

Over 2.5 63.4% 69.4% 1.44 -8.7%

Over 3.5 39.5% 49.5% 2.02 -20.2%

BTTS 59.9% 69.4% 1.44 -13.7%

Home O1.5 55.8% 65.8% 1.52 -15.2%

Away O1.5 35.4% 45.5% 2.20 -22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.9%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamilton Olympic2.0

Valentine1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMILTON OLYMPIC · PPG 1.00

VALENTINE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hamilton Olympic (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +1.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.8%

Valentine (A) 21.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamilton Olympic face Valentine in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamilton Olympic a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Valentine 21%, so Hamilton Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Hamilton Olympic and 1.1 for Valentine (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamilton Olympic are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Valentine. This match finished 1-2.

Hamilton Olympic vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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