Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Belmont Swansea vs Lambton Jaffas

Belmont Swansea vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 06:30

Belmont Swansea logo
Belmont Swansea
PPG 1.89 · HOME
2 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Lambton Jaffas logo
Lambton Jaffas
PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.0%0-23.6%0-32.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.4%1-18.0%1-27.3%1-34.4%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.3%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.9%3-15.3%3-24.9%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-14.2%4+-23.9%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 47.4% 40.0% 2.50 +18.5%
Draw 21.7% 27.8% 3.60 -13.1%
Away win 30.8% 44.4% 2.25 -30.7%
Over 2.5 67.2% 69.4% 1.44 -3.2%
Over 3.5 44.0% 52.1% 1.92 -15.5%
BTTS 64.3% 73.5% 1.36 -12.6%
Home O1.5 55.4% 56.5% 1.77 -1.9%
Away O1.5 50.7% 58.8% 1.70 -13.8%

League track record

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%
O2.5 57%
BTTS 52%
Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-1
xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.3%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%
#2 2–1 8.0%
#3 2–2 7.3%
#4 1–2 7.3%
#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belmont Swansea2.0
Lambton Jaffas1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.89

LAMBTON JAFFAS · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60%
BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Belmont Swansea (H) 47.4%
ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +18.5%
Draw 21.7%
ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.1%
Lambton Jaffas (A) 30.8%
ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -30.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belmont Swansea face Lambton Jaffas in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belmont Swansea a 47% chance, the draw 22% and Lambton Jaffas 31%, so Belmont Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Belmont Swansea and 1.8 for Lambton Jaffas (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belmont Swansea are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.30 for Lambton Jaffas. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 2-1.

PredictVantage

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