Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Adamstown Rosebuds vs Valentine

Adamstown Rosebuds vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 04:00

Adamstown Rosebuds

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Valentine

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.2%0-25.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.0%1-112.1%1-27.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.5%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Draw 25.0% 26.3% 3.80 -3.0%

Away win 28.6% 34.5% 2.90 -10.2%

Over 2.5 53.4% 66.7% 1.50 -19.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 44.4% 2.25 -27.6%

BTTS 55.4% 69.4% 1.44 -20.2%

Home O1.5 45.4% 57.5% 1.74 -21.0%

Away O1.5 36.5% 47.4% 2.11 -23.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adamstown Rosebuds1.5

Valentine1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ADAMSTOWN ROSEBUDS · PPG 0.89

VALENTINE · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Adamstown Rosebuds (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.3%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.0%

Valentine (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adamstown Rosebuds face Valentine in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adamstown Rosebuds a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Valentine 29%, so Adamstown Rosebuds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Adamstown Rosebuds and 1.2 for Valentine (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adamstown Rosebuds are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.11 for Valentine.

Adamstown Rosebuds vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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