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Edgeworth Eagles vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 05:00

Edgeworth Eagles

PPG 2.70 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Weston Bears

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.8%0-24.1%0-32.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.2%1-18.9%1-27.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.0%3-15.2%3-24.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.7%4+-23.2%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 36.4% 2.75 +23.2%

Draw 21.7% 28.6% 3.50 -14.4%

Away win 33.4% 46.5% 2.15 -28.2%

Over 2.5 67.2% 73.5% 1.36 -8.6%

Over 3.5 44.0% 50.5% 1.98 -12.9%

BTTS 64.3% 73.5% 1.36 -12.6%

Home O1.5 55.4% 52.6% 1.90 +5.3%

Away O1.5 48.2% 60.2% 1.66 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob64.3%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Edgeworth Eagles1.9

Weston Bears1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EDGEWORTH EAGLES · PPG 2.70

WESTON BEARS · PPG 2.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Edgeworth Eagles (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +23.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.4%

Weston Bears (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Edgeworth Eagles face Weston Bears in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Edgeworth Eagles a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Weston Bears 33%, so Edgeworth Eagles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Edgeworth Eagles and 1.7 for Weston Bears (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Edgeworth Eagles are averaging 2.70 points per game versus 2.44 for Weston Bears. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Edgeworth Eagles vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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