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River Plate Res. vs Godoy Cruz Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 22:00

River Plate Res.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Godoy Cruz Res.

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-13.9%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.0%1-18.6%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-16.8%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-16.2%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 69.4% 1.44 -7.3%

Draw 20.9% 27.8% 3.60 -14.9%

Away win 14.8% 16.7% 6.00 -6.7%

Over 2.5 59.5% 54.1% 1.85 +10.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 33.7% 2.97 +8.4%

BTTS 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Home O1.5 63.0% 60.6% 1.65 +4.0%

Away O1.5 17.2% 22.5% 4.45 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 8.6%

#4 3–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

River Plate Res.2.2

Godoy Cruz Res.0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVER PLATE RES. · PPG 2.00

GODOY CRUZ RES. · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

River Plate Res. (H) 64.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -7.3%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.9%

Godoy Cruz Res. (A) 14.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

River Plate Res. face Godoy Cruz Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives River Plate Res. a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Godoy Cruz Res. 15%, so River Plate Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for River Plate Res. and 0.7 for Godoy Cruz Res. (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, River Plate Res. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Godoy Cruz Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.1%.

River Plate Res. vs Godoy Cruz Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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