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San Martín San Juan Res. vs Boca Juniors Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:00

San Martín San Juan Res.

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boca Juniors Res.

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -2.22 for Away, form 0.80 vs 1.60

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-19.1%0-212.8%0-312.1%0-4+17.2%1 1-01.9%1-15.5%1-27.8%1-37.4%1-4+10.5%2 2-00.6%2-11.7%2-22.4%2-32.3%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.5% — — —

Draw 16.6% — — —

Away win 69.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 39.4% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 67.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob49.2%

A 70% / xG 0.6-2.8 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.8%

#2 0–3 12.1%

#3 0–4 8.6%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martín San Juan Res.0.6

Boca Juniors Res.2.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTÍN SAN JUAN RES. · PPG 0.80

BOCA JUNIORS RES. · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.22 for Away, form 0.80 vs 1.60

Win probability 1X2

San Martín San Juan Res. (H) 13.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Boca Juniors Res. (A) 69.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martín San Juan Res. face Boca Juniors Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martín San Juan Res. a 14% chance, the draw 17% and Boca Juniors Res. 70%, so Boca Juniors Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for San Martín San Juan Res. and 2.8 for Boca Juniors Res. (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martín San Juan Res. are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.60 for Boca Juniors Res..

San Martín San Juan Res. vs Boca Juniors Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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