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Sarmiento Res. vs Unión Santa Fe Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 18:00

Sarmiento Res.

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Unión Santa Fe Res.

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-114.8%0-27.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.2%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.5%2-16.1%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.0%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 32.3% 3.10 +6.3%

Draw 32.0% 36.4% 2.75 -12.0%

Away win 33.7% 44.4% 2.25 -24.2%

Over 2.5 39.0% 42.6% 2.35 -8.3%

Over 3.5 21.1% 24.4% 4.10 -8.1%

BTTS 47.7% 52.4% 1.91 -8.9%

Home O1.5 30.2% 31.1% 3.22 -2.8%

Away O1.5 26.2% 40.0% 2.50 -20.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.7%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 1–0 14.2%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento Res.0.9

Unión Santa Fe Res.0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO RES. · PPG 0.80

UNIÓN SANTA FE RES. · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.04, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento Res. (H) 34.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +6.3%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.0%

Unión Santa Fe Res. (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento Res. face Unión Santa Fe Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento Res. a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Unión Santa Fe Res. 34%, so Sarmiento Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sarmiento Res. and 0.9 for Unión Santa Fe Res. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento Res. are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Unión Santa Fe Res..

Sarmiento Res. vs Unión Santa Fe Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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