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Racing Club Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 18:00

Racing Club Res.

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atlético Tucumán Res.

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+16.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.8%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.4%1-110.7%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.1%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.3%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Draw 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -17.4%

Away win 24.0% 25.6% 3.90 -3.8%

Over 2.5 59.5% 51.3% 1.95 +16.0%

Over 3.5 36.5% 32.5% 3.08 +12.4%

BTTS 57.8% 57.1% 1.75 +1.1%

Home O1.5 54.6% 53.5% 1.87 +2.1%

Away O1.5 31.8% 30.5% 3.28 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.8%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Club Res.1.9

Atlético Tucumán Res.1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING CLUB RES. · PPG 1.60

ATLÉTICO TUCUMÁN RES. · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Racing Club Res. (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -4.4%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.4%

Atlético Tucumán Res. (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Club Res. face Atlético Tucumán Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Club Res. a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Atlético Tucumán Res. 24%, so Racing Club Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Racing Club Res. and 1.0 for Atlético Tucumán Res. (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Club Res. are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.36 for Atlético Tucumán Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.0%.

Racing Club Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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