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Colón Res. vs Newell's Old Boys Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 18:00

Colón Res.

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Newell's Old Boys Res.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-113.9%0-27.5%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.5%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.1%2-16.5%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% — — —

Draw 28.9% — — —

Away win 34.9% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 34.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 0–1 13.9%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colón Res.1.0

Newell's Old Boys Res.1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

COLÓN RES. · PPG 1.40

NEWELL'S OLD BOYS RES. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 2.05 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Colón Res. (H) 36.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Newell's Old Boys Res. (A) 34.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Colón Res. face Newell's Old Boys Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colón Res. a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Newell's Old Boys Res. 35%, so Colón Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Colón Res. and 1.1 for Newell's Old Boys Res. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colón Res. are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Newell's Old Boys Res..

Colón Res. vs Newell's Old Boys Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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