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Vélez Sársfield Res. vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 18:00

Vélez Sársfield Res.

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-14.4%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.9%1-18.6%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.7%2-18.5%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.4%3-15.6%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-14.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 62.5% 1.60 -11.4%

Draw 22.5% 30.3% 3.30 -15.4%

Away win 22.1% 20.0% 5.00 +6.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 47.7% 50.0% 2.00 -4.6%

Home O1.5 54.6% 54.3% 1.84 +0.5%

Away O1.5 16.7% 22.2% 4.50 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.7%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.7%

#2 1–0 15.9%

#3 3–0 10.4%

#4 1–1 8.6%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vélez Sársfield Res.2.0

Gimnasia Mendoza 20.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VÉLEZ SÁRSFIELD RES. · PPG 2.25

GIMNASIA MENDOZA 2 · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vélez Sársfield Res. (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -11.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.4%

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 (A) 22.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vélez Sársfield Res. face Gimnasia Mendoza 2 in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vélez Sársfield Res. a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Gimnasia Mendoza 2 22%, so Vélez Sársfield Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Vélez Sársfield Res. and 0.5 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vélez Sársfield Res. are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.20 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.5%.

Vélez Sársfield Res. vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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