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Deportivo Riestra Res. vs Huracán Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Riestra Res.

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Huracán Res.

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 38.2% — a clear edge.

+35.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-18.2%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.7%1-112.1%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-18.8%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.3%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 38.2% 2.62 +35.7%

Draw 26.4% 34.7% 2.88 -14.4%

Away win 21.8% 40.0% 2.50 -27.3%

Over 2.5 45.9% 42.0% 2.38 +9.2%

Over 3.5 26.1% 22.2% 4.50 +10.5%

BTTS 47.7% 51.3% 1.95 -7.0%

Home O1.5 45.1% 34.6% 2.89 +30.3%

Away O1.5 17.2% 34.6% 2.89 -30.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.7%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Riestra Res.1.5

Huracán Res.0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA RES. · PPG 1.80

HURACÁN RES. · PPG 1.10

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Riestra Res. (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +35.7%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.4%

Huracán Res. (A) 21.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Riestra Res. face Huracán Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Riestra Res. a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Huracán Res. 22%, so Deportivo Riestra Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Deportivo Riestra Res. and 0.8 for Huracán Res. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Riestra Res. are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.10 for Huracán Res.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +30.3%.

Deportivo Riestra Res. vs Huracán Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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