Today / Brazil - Paulista - U20 / XV de Jaú U20 vs Referencia U20

XV de Jaú U20 vs Referencia U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 11 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 18:00

XV de Jaú U20

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Referencia U20

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-18.8%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.8%1-112.5%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-18.8%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 24.6% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 49.8% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 21.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.8%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

XV de Jaú U201.4

Referencia U200.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

XV DE JAÚ U20 · PPG 1.33

REFERENCIA U20 · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

XV de Jaú U20 (H) 48.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Referencia U20 (A) 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

XV de Jaú U20 face Referencia U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives XV de Jaú U20 a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Referencia U20 25%, so XV de Jaú U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for XV de Jaú U20 and 0.8 for Referencia U20 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, XV de Jaú U20 are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.80 for Referencia U20.

XV de Jaú U20 vs Referencia U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Paulista - U20 Predictions