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Sfera U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 11 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 18:00

Sfera U20

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gremio Prudente U20

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.0%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.8%1-18.7%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-16.9%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-16.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 18.8% — — —

Over 2.5 58.6% — — —

Over 3.5 35.0% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 62.7% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 60% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sfera U202.2

Gremio Prudente U200.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SFERA U20 · PPG 1.80

GREMIO PRUDENTE U20 · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sfera U20 (H) 59.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gremio Prudente U20 (A) 18.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sfera U20 face Gremio Prudente U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sfera U20 a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Gremio Prudente U20 19%, so Sfera U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sfera U20 and 0.7 for Gremio Prudente U20 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sfera U20 are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.75 for Gremio Prudente U20.

Sfera U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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