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Palmeiras U20 vs Ituano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 11 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 18:00

Palmeiras U20

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ituano U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-14.1%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.7%1-18.6%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.3%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-15.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.4% — — —

Draw 21.0% — — —

Away win 16.5% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 59.8% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.2%

H 62% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.4%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 3–0 10.0%

#4 1–1 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palmeiras U202.1

Ituano U200.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PALMEIRAS U20 · PPG 1.75

ITUANO U20 · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Palmeiras U20 (H) 62.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ituano U20 (A) 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Palmeiras U20 face Ituano U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palmeiras U20 a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Ituano U20 17%, so Palmeiras U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Palmeiras U20 and 0.6 for Ituano U20 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palmeiras U20 are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Ituano U20.

Palmeiras U20 vs Ituano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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