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Aguai U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 11 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 18:00

Aguai U20

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

EC São Bernardo U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.7%0-25.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.6%1-111.6%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.8%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.3%3-14.5%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 31.7% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.1% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aguai U201.5

EC São Bernardo U201.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AGUAI U20 · PPG 0.80

EC SÃO BERNARDO U20 · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aguai U20 (H) 44.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

EC São Bernardo U20 (A) 31.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aguai U20 face EC São Bernardo U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aguai U20 a 44% chance, the draw 24% and EC São Bernardo U20 32%, so Aguai U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aguai U20 and 1.4 for EC São Bernardo U20 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aguai U20 are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.00 for EC São Bernardo U20.

Aguai U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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