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Novorizontino U20 vs São Paulo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 11 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 14:00

Novorizontino U20

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

São Paulo U20

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-120.0%0-212.1%0-34.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.7%1-111.8%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-02.9%2-13.5%2-22.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.6%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.8% — — —

Draw 28.9% — — —

Away win 46.4% — — —

Over 2.5 42.7% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.7%

A 46% / xG 0.6-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 0–1 20.0%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 0–2 12.1%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino U200.6

São Paulo U201.2

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO U20 · PPG 1.00

SÃO PAULO U20 · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.62 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino U20 (H) 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

São Paulo U20 (A) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino U20 face São Paulo U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino U20 a 25% chance, the draw 29% and São Paulo U20 46%, so São Paulo U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Novorizontino U20 and 1.2 for São Paulo U20 (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino U20 are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.60 for São Paulo U20.

Novorizontino U20 vs São Paulo U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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