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Porto Football U20 vs Mauá U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 11 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 18:00

Porto Football U20

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mauá U20

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.7%0-114.8%0-24.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.8%1-112.3%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.8%2-15.1%2-21.7%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.2%3-11.4%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% — — —

Draw 32.8% — — —

Away win 23.5% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 44% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.7%

#2 1–0 18.8%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–1 14.8%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Porto Football U200.8

Mauá U200.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTO FOOTBALL U20 · PPG 0.80

MAUÁ U20 · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 1.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Porto Football U20 (H) 43.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mauá U20 (A) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Porto Football U20 face Mauá U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Porto Football U20 a 44% chance, the draw 33% and Mauá U20 24%, so Porto Football U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Porto Football U20 and 0.7 for Mauá U20 (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Porto Football U20 are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.25 for Mauá U20.

Porto Football U20 vs Mauá U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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