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Capivariano U20 vs Água Santa U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 11 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 18:00

Capivariano U20

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Água Santa U20

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.6%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-19.6%1-24.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.9%3-16.9%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.7%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 61.9% — — —

Over 3.5 38.7% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 59.8% — — —

Away O1.5 28.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Capivariano U202.1

Água Santa U201.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAPIVARIANO U20 · PPG 2.50

ÁGUA SANTA U20 · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Capivariano U20 (H) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Água Santa U20 (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Capivariano U20 face Água Santa U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Capivariano U20 a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Água Santa U20 22%, so Capivariano U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Capivariano U20 and 1.0 for Água Santa U20 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Capivariano U20 are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.60 for Água Santa U20.

Capivariano U20 vs Água Santa U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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