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Chattanooga vs Atlanta United II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:00

Chattanooga

PPG 2.09 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Atlanta United II

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.6%0-22.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.6%1-18.1%1-25.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.7%3-16.8%3-24.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.5%4+-24.7%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 46.5% 2.15 +15.4%

Draw 22.3% 30.3% 3.30 -15.8%

Away win 23.9% 36.4% 2.75 -20.6%

Over 2.5 65.2% 69.4% 1.44 -6.1%

Over 3.5 43.7% 46.1% 2.17 -5.2%

BTTS 62.9% 71.4% 1.40 -11.9%

Home O1.5 62.4% 57.1% 1.75 +9.2%

Away O1.5 43.7% 48.5% 2.06 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 28.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.9%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chattanooga2.3

Atlanta United II1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHATTANOOGA · PPG 2.09

ATLANTA UNITED II · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chattanooga (H) 53.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +15.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.8%

Atlanta United II (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chattanooga face Atlanta United II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chattanooga a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Atlanta United II 24%, so Chattanooga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Chattanooga and 1.4 for Atlanta United II (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chattanooga are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.30 for Atlanta United II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Chattanooga vs Atlanta United II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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