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Kormákur / Hvöt vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:00

Kormákur / Hvöt

PPG 1.86 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Thróttur Vogar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.07 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.5%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.4%1-14.9%1-22.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.0%2-17.7%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.4%3-18.2%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-114.3%4+-27.9%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.2% — — —

Draw 16.5% — — —

Away win 17.3% — — —

Over 2.5 73.0% — — —

Over 3.5 52.7% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob64.3%

H 66% / xG 3.2-1.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 3–0 7.4%

#4 2–0✓ 7.0%

#5 4–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kormákur / Hvöt3.2

Thróttur Vogar1.1

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KORMÁKUR / HVÖT · PPG 1.86

THRÓTTUR VOGAR · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.07 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kormákur / Hvöt (H) 66.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Thróttur Vogar (A) 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kormákur / Hvöt face Thróttur Vogar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kormákur / Hvöt a 66% chance, the draw 17% and Thróttur Vogar 17%, so Kormákur / Hvöt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Kormákur / Hvöt and 1.1 for Thróttur Vogar (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kormákur / Hvöt are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.00 for Thróttur Vogar. This match finished 2-0.

Kormákur / Hvöt vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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