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Oeste U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 11 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 22:00

Oeste U20

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Botafogo SP U20

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.9%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.9%1-19.9%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.3%3-16.6%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 52.6% 1.90 +5.3%

Draw 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -14.1%

Away win 22.1% 29.4% 3.40 -14.9%

Over 2.5 59.5% 51.3% 1.95 +16.0%

Over 3.5 36.5% 33.7% 2.97 +8.4%

BTTS 54.5% 61.0% 1.64 -10.6%

Home O1.5 54.6% 48.3% 2.07 +13.0%

Away O1.5 23.7% 38.9% 2.57 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.8%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oeste U202.0

Botafogo SP U200.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OESTE U20 · PPG 1.75

BOTAFOGO SP U20 · PPG 0.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Oeste U20 (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +5.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.1%

Botafogo SP U20 (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oeste U20 face Botafogo SP U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oeste U20 a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Botafogo SP U20 22%, so Oeste U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Oeste U20 and 0.9 for Botafogo SP U20 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oeste U20 are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Botafogo SP U20. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.0%.

Oeste U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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