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Leones de Rosario vs Deportivo Muñiz Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 23 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 18:00

Leones de Rosario

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Muñiz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.6%0-113.2%0-24.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.8%1-112.6%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.0%2-16.1%2-22.0%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-11.9%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 51.3% 1.95 -18.3%

Draw 32.4% 34.5% 2.90 -6.0%

Away win 25.7% 25.0% 4.00 +1.7%

Over 2.5 34.2% 37.0% 2.70 -7.7%

Over 3.5 17.7% 18.2% 5.50 -1.6%

BTTS 44.6% 45.5% 2.20 -1.9%

Home O1.5 30.2% 40.8% 2.45 -26.0%

Away O1.5 17.2% 23.1% 4.33 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.6%

#2 1–0 18.8%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones de Rosario1.0

Deportivo Muñiz0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES DE ROSARIO · PPG 1.27

DEPORTIVO MUÑIZ · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 1.63 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leones de Rosario (H) 41.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -18.3%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.0%

Deportivo Muñiz (A) 25.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones de Rosario face Deportivo Muñiz in Argentina - Primera C on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones de Rosario a 42% chance, the draw 32% and Deportivo Muñiz 26%, so Leones de Rosario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Leones de Rosario and 0.7 for Deportivo Muñiz (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones de Rosario are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportivo Muñiz. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.4%.

Leones de Rosario vs Deportivo Muñiz Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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