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Argentino Rosario vs Mercedes Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Argentino Rosario

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Mercedes

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-118.4%0-29.7%0-33.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.0%1-112.7%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-04.1%2-14.4%2-22.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.0%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 36.4% 2.75 -18.9%

Draw 33.1% 34.5% 2.90 -4.0%

Away win 41.9% 39.2% 2.55 +6.8%

Over 2.5 35.1% 37.7% 2.65 -7.0%

Over 3.5 18.1% 18.2% 5.50 -0.3%

BTTS 45.5% 47.6% 2.10 -4.5%

Home O1.5 32.1% 31.3% 3.20 +2.7%

Away O1.5 33.8% 33.3% 3.00 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob45.5%

A 42% / xG 0.7-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.4%

#2 0–1 18.4%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 0–2 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Rosario0.7

Mercedes1.1

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO ROSARIO · PPG 1.17

MERCEDES · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.37, combined xG 1.75 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Rosario (H) 24.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -18.9%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -4.0%

Mercedes (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Rosario face Mercedes in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Rosario a 25% chance, the draw 33% and Mercedes 42%, so Mercedes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Argentino Rosario and 1.1 for Mercedes (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Rosario are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.18 for Mercedes. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Argentino Rosario vs Mercedes Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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