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Beasain vs UD Logrones Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:00

Beasain

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

UD Logrones

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-18.3%0-27.9%0-35.0%0-4+3.6%1 1-05.4%1-110.2%1-29.7%1-36.1%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.3%2-16.3%2-26.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.4%3-12.6%3-22.5%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.8% 30.3% 3.30 -18.2%

Draw 22.4% 32.3% 3.10 -30.6%

Away win 52.9% 48.8% 2.05 +8.4%

Over 2.5 60.6% — — —

Over 3.5 38.2% — — —

BTTS 60.3% 55.6% 1.80 +8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.3%

A 53% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–1 8.3%

#4 0–2 7.9%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beasain1.2

UD Logrones1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BEASAIN · PPG 1.13

UD LOGRONES · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Beasain (H) 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -18.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -30.6%

UD Logrones (A) 52.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beasain face UD Logrones in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beasain a 25% chance, the draw 22% and UD Logrones 53%, so UD Logrones are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Beasain and 1.9 for UD Logrones (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beasain are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.27 for UD Logrones. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Beasain vs UD Logrones Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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