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IMT N. Beograd vs Mladost Lucani Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:00

IMT N. Beograd

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Mladost Lucani

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Home 58% chance

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-16.7%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.3%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.4%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-15.3%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.3% 57.1% 1.75 +2.0%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -15.7%

Away win 17.6% 23.1% 4.33 -23.8%

Over 2.5 44.9% 50.0% 2.00 -10.2%

Over 3.5 23.7% 28.2% 3.55 -15.9%

BTTS 44.7% 54.1% 1.85 -17.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.7%

H 58% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.1%

#2 2–0 11.8%

#3 1–1✓ 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IMT N. Beograd1.7

Mladost Lucani0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IMT N. BEOGRAD · PPG 1.47

MLADOST LUCANI · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

IMT N. Beograd (H) 58.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +2.0%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.7%

Mladost Lucani (A) 17.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

IMT N. Beograd face Mladost Lucani in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IMT N. Beograd a 58% chance, the draw 24% and Mladost Lucani 18%, so IMT N. Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for IMT N. Beograd and 0.8 for Mladost Lucani (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IMT N. Beograd are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.73 for Mladost Lucani. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 1-1.

IMT N. Beograd vs Mladost Lucani Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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