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Tulevik vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:00

Tulevik

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Johvi Phoenix

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 7.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.2%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.4%1-10.8%1-20.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-01.0%2-12.0%2-22.1%2-31.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.7%3-13.5%3-23.5%3-32.4%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-120.1%4+-220.5%4+-313.9%4+-4+11.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.7% — — —

Draw 16.8% — — —

Away win 17.5% — — —

Over 2.5 79.6% — — —

Over 3.5 69.4% — — —

BTTS 69.5% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 49.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)5.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.5%

H 66% / xG 5.2-2.0 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–2 4.7%

#2 5–1 4.6%

#3 4–2 4.6%

#4 4–1 4.5%

#5 3–2 3.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tulevik5.2

Johvi Phoenix2.0

COMBINED 7.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 69.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TULEVIK · PPG 2.00

JOHVI PHOENIX · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.13 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tulevik (H) 65.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Johvi Phoenix (A) 17.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tulevik face Johvi Phoenix in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tulevik a 66% chance, the draw 17% and Johvi Phoenix 18%, so Tulevik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.2 for Tulevik and 2.0 for Johvi Phoenix (7.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tulevik are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Johvi Phoenix.