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Legion vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

Legion

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Johvi Phoenix

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -0.73 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-14.1%0-24.9%0-33.9%0-4+4.2%1 1-02.9%1-16.9%1-28.2%1-36.6%1-4+6.9%2 2-02.4%2-15.7%2-26.9%2-35.5%2-4+5.8%3 3-01.3%3-13.2%3-23.8%3-33.1%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.9%4+-22.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 45.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 46.6% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.5%

A 45% / xG 1.7-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.2%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Legion1.7

Johvi Phoenix2.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGION · PPG 1.00

JOHVI PHOENIX · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.73 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Legion (H) 32.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Johvi Phoenix (A) 45.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Legion face Johvi Phoenix in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Legion a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Johvi Phoenix 45%, so Johvi Phoenix are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Legion and 2.4 for Johvi Phoenix (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Legion are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.56 for Johvi Phoenix.

Legion vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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