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Tulevik vs Luunja Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

Tulevik

PPG 1.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Luunja

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.2%0-21.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-02.2%1-13.9%1-23.6%1-32.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-03.5%2-16.2%2-25.6%2-33.4%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.7%3-16.6%3-26.0%3-33.6%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-111.6%4+-210.5%4+-36.3%4+-4+4.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% — — —

Draw 17.6% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 74.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.0% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob70.3%

H 58% / xG 3.2-1.8 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.6%

#2 2–1 6.2%

#3 3–2 6.0%

#4 2–2 5.6%

#5 4–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tulevik3.2

Luunja1.8

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TULEVIK · PPG 1.92

LUUNJA · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tulevik (H) 57.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Luunja (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tulevik face Luunja in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tulevik a 58% chance, the draw 18% and Luunja 25%, so Tulevik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Tulevik and 1.8 for Luunja (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tulevik are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.38 for Luunja.

Tulevik vs Luunja Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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